Happy Thursday, !

This week’s world-famous news haiku competition™ is about all the high-profile business, tech, and finance people who’ve shown up in the Epstein Files. Send me your entry — to our spiffy email address, haiku at cheddar dot com — by noon ET Thursday (today!) for consideration by your Cheddar peers!

And now for something completely different.

Matt Davis — Need2Know Chedditor

News You Need2Know

• Feds back prediction markets as states try to ban …

• Let’s have a laugh at the tech bros’ expense

• Is there a recession coming, or what?

• Free yourself from advertising forever!

• Buffett trims Apple, buys the New York Times

• IRS refunds jump nearly 11% this tax season

• Poll of the day: When is a prediction with money n …

What’s the stock market up to, eh?

$SPX ( ▼ 0.59% ) $DJI ( ▼ 0.85% ) $NDX ( ▼ 0.6% )  

Companies mentioned in today’s newsletter

$KALSHI ( 0.0% )  $POLYMARKET ( 0.0% )  $AAPL ( ▼ 0.87% )  $NYT ( ▲ 0.34% )  $BRK.A ( ▼ 0.4% )  $TJX ( ▼ 0.64% )  

Feds back prediction markets as states try to ban them

The growing “prediction market” industry, powered by platforms like Kalshi $KALSHI ( 0.0% ) and Polymarket $POLYMARKET ( 0.0% ) , has become the center of a heated legal battle after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) expressed its support for the sector. Chairman Michael Selig put a video up on Twitter all about it, threatening to sue states who try to ban the platforms.

Mr. Selig also wrote in a (checks notes) op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, “The CFTC will no longer sit idly by while overzealous state governments undermine the agency’s exclusive jurisdiction over these markets.”

His stance could revolutionize how prediction markets operate nationwide, potentially encroaching on states' ability to regulate gambling.

Prediction markets allow users to buy and sell contracts based on the likelihood of events, ranging from sports to geopolitical outcomes. However, states like Nevada, home to stringent gaming laws, argue these platforms function as unlicensed sports betting operations. 

"These prediction markets you are breathlessly defending are gambling — pure and simple," said Utah Governor Spencer Cox, pushing back on Selig’s assertion that prediction markets mirror traditional futures contracts. “They’re destroying the lives of families and countless Americans, especially young men. They have no place in Utah.”

Selig, whom we should take seriously because his shirt collar is a different color than the rest of his shirt, remains resolute: "To those who seek to challenge our authority in this space, let me be clear, we will see you in court,” he said. Yikes!

Let’s have a laugh at the tech bros’ expense

Austin Nasso and Jesse Warren, the co-founders of the Tech Roast Show, have turned the absurdities of tech culture into a global comedy tour. What started as a reaction to the homogenous culture in places like Seattle — where "every single person had the same exact job" — has evolved into a unique form of "punching up" at the industry's elite.

As the tech landscape has changed (with more job insecurity for the average worker), their target has shifted. Warren notes, "it really moved towards the regular person to more of like the startup founder, the arrogant CEO...taking advantage of all the funding going around." Nasso adds that the definition of a "founder" has shifted from "real businesses with, like, strong financials" to "children who have, like, just a prompt that they rode."

The show itself has moved "from an almost entirely scripted production to an entirely unscripted production," catering each performance to the individuals present. Thankfully, their audience of tech workers is mostly self-aware and supportive. With only a handful of negative reactions in almost a decade, they seem to have found the sweet spot for roasting the most privileged sector of the professional world.

Quote of the Day

Is there a recession coming, or what?

The start of 2026 has seen significant market rotation, with energy and materials outpacing big tech. According to Bill Mann, Chief Investment Strategist at Motley Fool Asset Management, a major factor is "valuation fatigue" in the former market leaders. While recognizing that "the Mag 7 are some of the best companies that have ever been devised," he cautions, "that doesn't mean that you buy them at any valuation."

Mann sees the market "finally a little bit concerned about how AI is going to impact the software companies." He notes that AI is putting "a lot of pressure on certain business models that have worked in the past, the SaaS models," which are "definitely at risk." However, he looks forward to an end to the current "indiscriminate selling," when the market "will become more discriminating."

For the second quarter, Mann favors sectors "completely AI-resistant, completely resistant to tariffs," such as consumer staples. He cites TJ Maxx $TJX ( ▼ 0.64% ) as a favorite, emphasizing, "you're not going to AI-out, close-out retailers." He is also closely watching the shift in the AI build-out, which is increasingly using debt rather than equity, interested "to see if that changes some of the risk dynamics." Motley Fool Asset Management has also found "a lot of value out there" in international markets like Japan, Mann said.

Song of the Day: Charlie XCX, ‘Always Everywhere’

Here’s a nice little number from the new “Wuthering Heights” soundtrack.

Free yourself from advertising forever!

Buffett trims Apple, buys the New York Times

As Warren Buffett transitioned out of his role as CEO, Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.A ( ▼ 0.4% ) made some notable adjustments to its investment portfolio in the last quarter. The Omaha-based conglomerate trimmed its stake in Apple $AAPL ( ▼ 0.87% ) by 4.3%, reducing its position to a paltry $61.96 billion, still its largest equity holding. Additionally, Berkshire initiated a tiny new $351.7 million stake in The New York Times $NYT ( ▲ 0.34% ) .

It remains unclear whether the moves were led by Buffett himself or his investment managers, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler. Buffett has long seen Apple as more than a technology company, describing it as a consumer products giant. These latest shifts may reflect efforts to simplify the portfolio for Greg Abel, the newly appointed CEO. Abel officially took the reins at the start of 2026, marking an era of change for Berkshire Hathaway’s leadership.

IRS refunds jump nearly 11% this tax season

The 2026 tax season has kicked off with some encouraging news for taxpayers. According to the IRS, the average tax refund has risen by 10.9%, climbing to $2,290 as of February 6, compared to $2,065 during the same period in 2025. The increase is attributed in part to tax cuts. Republican lawmakers have noted that the new provisions in the One, Big, Beautiful Bill Act “could boost refunds for millions of taxpayers by as much as $1,000 per filer,” according to analysis from the House Ways and Means Committee.

While the rise in average refunds is a positive sign, experts caution against interpreting early filing season data as conclusive. The Bipartisan Policy Center notes that early-season numbers “can be deceiving,” given the IRS’s delay in issuing refunds tied to the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and Additional Child Tax Credit (ACTC) until mid-February. The IRS has also received 5% fewer returns so far compared to last year, processing only 14% of the expected 164 million returns.

Global investment firm Principal Asset Management projects average refunds could rise to $3,800 per filer this year, with middle and higher-income households expected to benefit most. Lower-income households may see more modest gains, highlighting the varied impact of recent tax code changes.

Should you check your 401(k) today?

👍️ 

Yep.

Poll of the day: When is a prediction with money not a bet?

Poll of the day: We should we ban social media for kids

We asked: “Should we ban social media for kids under 18?”

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ I think that's overkill. I like the "teen accounts" Meta has launched and think that's fine. (43)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ No. I don't think social media is harmful to kids at all. (17)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 Hell yes. We should probably ban it for adults, too, but it's at least as bad for our kids as smoking. (448)
🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️ I think reasonable steps to restrict social media for kids might be a good idea. (386)

894 Votes via @beehiiv polls

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