Markets ride the 'NACHO' trade to new highs

Plus: Why do people tip less on the weekends?

Author

Matt Davis
May 12, 2026

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News You Need2Know

What’s the stock market up to, eh?

Companies mentioned in today’s newsletter

Markets ride the ‘NACHO’ trade to new highs

(Google)

Wall Street is leaning into the "NACHO" trade—as in, "Not A Chance Hormuz Opens"—as President Trump declared the U.S.-Iran ceasefire to be on "life support” on Monday, which sent Brent crude surging to $104.88 a barrel. With oil tankers stuck in the Persian Gulf, these long-term supply chain snarls are creating clear market divisions.

Fuel-reliant businesses are bleeding. Southwest Airlines $LUV ( ▼ 3.2% ) and Carnival $CUK ( ▲ 6.56% ) took sharp hits from massive fuel bills, while Dollar General $DG ( ▼ 7.64% ) slumped as its customers struggle with high gas prices. Fertilizer giant Mosaic $MOS ( ▼ 1.8% ) also fell due to logistics snarls driving up raw material costs.

Yet, major indexes are still setting records, carried by an AI and tech boom. Nvidia $NVDA ( ▲ 1.97% ) and Micron Technology $MU ( ▲ 6.5% ) are forcefully pushing the S&P 500 upward. The tech rally extends to giants like Meta $META ( ▼ 1.77% ) , Google $GOOGL ( ▼ 3.03% ) , and foundational chip and telecom players including ASML $ASML ( ▼ 1.65% ) , Intel $INTC ( ▲ 3.62% ) , Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company $TSM ( ▼ 1.73% ) , Nokia $NOK ( ▲ 8.58% ) , and Ericsson $ERIC ( ▲ 5.14% ) . Furthermore, financial infrastructure giants like Visa $V ( ▲ 1.59% ) and Mastercard $MA ( ▲ 0.47% ) remain central to the digital economy.

Elsewhere, Fox $FOX ( ▲ 8.09% ) posted strong profits, and Beazer Homes USA $BZH ( ▲ 34.04% ) soared following a buyout offer from Dream Finders Homes $DFH ( ▲ 4.96% ) . The NACHO trade proves that even amid geopolitical chaos, the market finds avenues for record growth. And of course, it’s sustainable growth that will continue forever with zero danger of a bubble forming. #NotFinancialAdvice

Quote of the Day

❝

We are an industry of one. We have no pure play competitor.

Why do people tip less on the weekends?

(Google)

A study of 68 million credit card transactions has confirmed that people are inexplicably stingy with their tips on the weekends. Apparently, when Saturday rolls around, the average 21.30% weekday tip magically drops closer to 20%.

I, of course, always tip 25% because I’m perfect, and I used to work at Starbucks $SBUX ( ▲ 0.77% ) , so I know how it feels to get stiffed.

Why the sudden penny-pinching? You can thank the collection plate and the movie theater. According to researcher Chris Pantzalis, folks fresh out of Sunday service at something called “church” are busy substituting their server's rent money with divine brownie points. As Pantzalis told the Wall Street Journal, “Tips and donations seem to come out of the same mental account.” How incredibly convenient for the diner, and for God, of course, although certainly less so for the average server who makes $7.50 to $20 less per weekend shift. Oof.

If the church doesn't get a person’s spare cash, blockbuster movies will. Pantzalis explains that on big movie weekends, “This small percentage decline translates to approximately $3 million less in tips for servers across the country.” In short, people shortchange their waiters so they can splurge either on the Lord, or on overpriced theater popcorn. Pantzalis helpfully claims that understanding this phenomenon is "essential for restaurant operators aiming to establish consistent hourly wages for their service staff." We won't hold our breath!

The new space race is all about surveillance

Move over, astronauts! The modern space race is less about planting flags and more about national surveillance. Enter Hawkeye 360, a satellite company that just went public $HAWK ( ▼ 0.03% ) after a blockbuster 2025, boasting "over 70% year over year growth" and adjusted EBITDA profits over 20%, according to its CEO, John Serafini.

So, what does this newly minted public company actually do? They operate clusters of three satellites flying 500 to 600 kilometers above us, snooping on radio frequency signals. If you're an illegal fishing vessel trying to sneak into someone else's waters by turning off your tracking systems to go "quote unquote dark," Hawkeye’s satellites are watching. Unlike other space tech, Hawkeye’s passive payloads are "in use 24 hours during the day" in all weather conditions. Serafini makes his business philosophy clear: "My mantra is only build in space that which is rare and cost efficient."

With fresh IPO capital, Hawkeye 360 plans to dominate radio frequency collection from geosynchronous orbit all the way down to earth. As Serafini claims, "We are an industry of one. We have no pure play competitor.”

Sounds sorta like me on the squash court, John.

Some raise concerns about privacy, the erosion of anonymity at sea, and the potential for misuse of Hawkeye’s surveillance data. But the firm’s growth is largely attributed to government contracts and, hey, haters gonna hate. Right? The share price certainly shook it off, with Hawkeye 360 stock soaring 31% after the IPO.

Song of the Day: Charlie XCX, ‘Rock Music’

Charli XCX's single "Rock Music” has sparked a polarized debate among critics and fans, primarily over whether the track is a sincere genre pivot or an elaborate "meta-pop" troll. Many reviewers, including those at The Guardian and Vulture, suggest the song is a satirical provocation. The lyrics, such as "I think the dancefloor is dead," are seen as "discourse chum" meant to rile up her fanbase. At just 1 minute and 55 seconds, the song is frequently described as "too brief" or more of a "soundbite" than a complete composition. Still, now you know what “discourse chum” is.

As in: Fancy some discourse, chum? (No, Matt, that’s not what it means. — Ed).

OpenAI staff cash out $30 million in shares each

Gather 'round, 401(k) savers: It seems the rest of us are doing the tech industry entirely wrong. You need to work there to cash out. Roughly 75 OpenAI employees recently walked away with a full $30 million each after the company generously allowed them to cash out their shares, the Wall Street Journal reports. Over 600 workers collectively unloaded $6.6 billion before the company even launched an IPO. 

Can you imagine managing such unprecedented, life-changing wealth while the rest of us wait for an IPO that never comes?

Meanwhile, mere mortals like us are left holding the bag.

Just ask my wife, who spent years toiling at an insure-tech startup chasing the elusive promise of going public. Just as with many past tech bubbles, her company missed its window, and the shares were eventually sold for pennies on the dollar. We lost $20,000 in taxes just to buy into an IPO dream that vanished. Speaking of things going up in smoke, I heard her founders’ house burned down in the California wildfires shortly after they sold out. A complete and utter tragedy, I assure you, and my devastation knows no bounds.

Could you survive without U.S. tech?

(Google)

Imagine waking up to find your email, credit cards, and travel bookings completely inaccessible. For International Criminal Court Judge Nicolas Guillou, this became a harsh reality after being targeted by U.S. sanctions in retaliation for issuing a couple of, let’s say, controversial arrest warrants that upset the American administration.

As Guillou noted in conversation with the Financial Times, “It was not clear to us at that time the extent of disruption that it creates in our daily life.” Suddenly cut off from American tech and payment networks, he realized “how in fact something that you think you control is in fact not at all under your control.”

Imagine: You wake up to check your emails. None of them load. You no longer have access to Google $GOOGL ( ▼ 3.03% ) , Microsoft $MSFT ( ▼ 0.59% ) , Yahoo $YHOO ( 0.0% ) , or Apple $AAPL ( ▼ 0.13% ) mail service. Your Apple pay no longer works. You can’t withdraw cash because your Visa $V ( ▲ 1.59% ) card isn’t accepted at your bank. Slack $WORK ( ▲ 0.09% ) , WhatsApp $META ( ▼ 1.77% ) , and Signal are blocked on your phone. Microsoft Teams, Slack, and Zoom $ZM ( ▼ 1.91% ) don’t work on your computer. Facebook, Instagram, and X are all blocked. Your Google Docs are all blocked. Your cloud access is blocked. You can’t use AI because ChatGPT is blocked. You can’t book a trip online because they all rely on U.S. systems. You can’t even shop on Amazon $AMZN ( ▼ 1.35% ) . Google Maps is blocked.

I bet you’re wishing you hadn’t issued those controversial arrest warrants now, eh, Judge Guillou, huh?

No?

Well. Okayyyyy.

Europe is acutely aware of this glaring digital vulnerability. One senior EU diplomat bluntly admitted to the FT, “The U.S. has the upper hand in this and they are very well aware of it.”

It’s an uncomfortable truth that Europe hasn't produced its own tech giant because “building and scaling a tech business in the EU is still far too fragmented and complex,” according to one expert. Even as politicians float ideas like digital taxes, former German finance minister Jörg Kukies warns that the real issue is “the lack of European alternatives.” Until that changes, surviving without America's digital ecosystem remains a near impossibility.

But moral superiority? That’s still wide open territory, apparently.

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The CEOs of NVIDIA, Tesla, & Microsoft Agree on One Secret

This year, the world’s biggest tech CEOs all said the same thing:

NVIDIA’s Jensen Huang called robotics a “once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.”

Microsoft’s Satya Nadella said 2026 is when AI will deliver real impact.

Tesla’s Elon Musk predicted, “AI and robots will make everyone wealthy.”

That opportunity’s arrived. Miso Robotics is leading the charge in bringing robotics solutions to the $1T fast-food industry.

Miso’s Flippy Fry Station AI robot has already logged 200K+ hours for fast-food brands like White Castle. Now, Miso has added iconic restaurant brands like Jersey Mike’s, Jamba, and Cinnabon as new customers.

With a new NVIDIA collaboration, strategic investment by industry leader Ecolab, and a growing manufacturing partnership, Miso can now scale to meet 100,000+ US fast-food restaurant locations, a $4B/year revenue opportunity.

This is a paid advertisement for Miso Robotics’ Regulation A offering. Please read the offering circular at invest.misorobotics.com.

END OF ADVERTISEMENT

Should you check your 401(k) today?

👍️ 

Fresh records, baby!

Poll of the day: Keeping your options open

Are you jealous of the OpenAI staff who just cashed out $30 million each in shares before the company even has a whiff of going public?

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Poll of the day: Humans still matter!

We asked: Do humans still matter more than AI in finance?

You answered:

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 Absolutely. Someone has to babysit the new "AI native" summer interns, whose supposedly brilliant ideas turned out to be "alarmingly shallow" to senior executives. (263)
🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ Absolutely not. An Nvidia survey highlights that 89% of finance executives believe AI is already boosting their revenues, with 73% considering the technology "crucial to their future success." So long, humans! (109)
372 Votes via @beehiiv polls

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