Hello, N2K’ers!

The subject of this week’s world famous News Haiku^TM competition is that Robert Redford has died at 89. Email me through your tears by Thursday at noon ET with your entry!

—Matt Davis, Need2Know Chedditor

News You Need2Know

• Powell signals Fed will move slow on rate cuts

• Tylenol-maker’s stock rebounds

• More Americans like legal immigration now

• This coconut water company is worth $2 billion

• Mortgage relief or mirage? What’s up with that?

What’s the stock market up to, eh?

$SPX ( ▼ 0.55% ) $DJI ( ▼ 0.19% ) $NDX ( ▼ 0.95% )

Companies mentioned in today’s newsletter

$KVUE ( ▲ 1.59% )  $JNJ ( ▲ 1.36% )  $COCO ( ▲ 0.49% )  

Powell signals Fed will move slow on rate cuts

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled a measured approach to future interest rate cuts in a speech Tuesday, emphasizing the delicate balance between fostering employment and controlling inflation. His cautious stance diverged from calls from other policymakers urging faster rate reductions in response to a softening labor market.

Powell explained the risks of both overly aggressive and overly conservative rate adjustments, saying cutting rates too quickly: “We might leave the inflation job unfinished and need to reverse course later.” On the other hand, maintaining rates too high could unnecessarily weaken the labor market. Reflecting this caution as he announced cuts last week, Powell remarked, “It’s challenging to know what to do.” 

In contrast, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman made a case for faster rate cuts, citing signs of cooling inflation and a stumbling labor market. “It is time for the [Fed] to act decisively and proactively to address decreasing labor market dynamism and emerging signs of fragility,” Bowman said. Similarly, Stephen Miran, a Trump-appointed Governor to the Fed, advocated for reducing rates to as low as 2–2.5%, arguing the Fed risks falling behind.

Markets were down about 0.5% after the speech, having previously seen last week’s rate cut as the first of two this year.

Song of the day: Buckingham Nicks, ‘Crying in the Night.’

Buckingham Nicks — the lone album by Lindsey Buckingham and Stevie Nicks before their Fleetwood Mac fame — debuted in 1973 but flopped commercially. Despite their later success, the album faded into obscurity, with no remaster or digital release for over 50 years. Finally, the cult classic has been resurrected, remastered, and re-released on CD, vinyl, and streaming platforms. Enjoy this track from rock’s most famous dysfunctional romance.

Tylenol-maker’s stock rebounds

Shares of Kenvue $KVUE ( ▲ 1.59% ) , the maker of Tylenol, rebounded sharply on Tuesday morning following a dramatic 7.5% drop the previous day caused by unfounded claims about its safety. During a White House news conference on Monday, President Trump discouraged pregnant women from using Tylenol, asserting unproven links between the drug, vaccines, and autism. "Don't take Tylenol," Trump urged, repeating his warning nearly a dozen times.

Despite the negative headlines, Kenvue’s stock regained over 6% at market opening on Tuesday, as analysts expressed optimism about the lack of substantial new evidence supporting Trump’s claims. The company has fought hundreds of lawsuits related to the product and its alleged ties to autism, but most have been dismissed.

Kenvue has vigorously denied any connection between Tylenol and autism and cautioned against avoiding the drug, especially during pregnancy. The company warned that pregnant women might face “a dangerous choice between suffering fevers or using riskier alternatives.”

Kenvue, which produces household names like Band-Aids (ahhhh) and Listerine (ooooh), was spun off from Johnson & Johnson $JNJ ( ▲ 1.36% ) in 2023.

Today on the ‘gram: It’s finally here!

Post of the day: I hope somebody buys it

Quote of the Day

More Americans like legal immigration now

A recent poll from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research reveals a shift in public perception: More Americans now believe that legal immigration provides significant benefits to the U.S. economy and its companies. The findings underscore changing attitudes amid ongoing debates over immigration policy.

The survey highlights that about six in 10 Americans now see legal immigration as a "major benefit" for contributing to economic growth, up from four in 10 last year. Additionally, 51% believe legal immigration allows American businesses to access skilled workers, particularly in vital fields like science and technology.

Despite an increase in support, barriers for those seeking legal immigration remain steep under new policies from the Trump administration. From a $100,000 increase in H-1B visa fees to rigorous screenings, immigrants face higher hurdles than ever.

Philip Steers, of St. Petersburg, Florida, is a Republican and feels the U.S. makes it too difficult for people to migrate legally. His nephew married a woman from Cambodia, and they have been trying for months to secure a spouse visa.

“If you are pushing all those people who are illegal out, why not make it easier for people who want to come here legally?” said Steers, 76. “We need to speed up the process for those who want to come here to benefit our country.”

Should you check your 401(k) today?

👎️ 

Not today, no.

This coconut water company is worth $2 billion

Mike Kirban, co-founder and executive chairman of Vita Coco $COCO ( ▲ 0.49% ) , shared the incredible 21-year journey of building a global brand — and a $2 billion company — from a simple idea born in a bar.

"We met two Brazilian girls at the bar, started chatting with them, and my friend, Ira, falls in love with this girl, ends up moving to Brazil shortly after that to be with her,” Mike said. “And I went down to visit, and coconut water was everywhere.”

Kirban and his friend realized the potential of packaged coconut water, a product that "didn't exist for most Americans."

The early days were a "grind," with Kirban rollerblading (it was the early noughties) to 50 stores a day to convince managers to carry the product. He'd then spend afternoons sampling, explaining "all the health benefits and functionality." He emphasizes the importance of "patience, perseverance, and just grinding away."

Even as a publicly traded company, Kirban checks the stock "a little bit more than every day," seeing it as a "scoreboard" that reflects their hard work. Consumer feedback led to new flavors and package sizes. Partnerships with Dole Frozen Fruit and Blue Stone Lane coffee shops — plus celebrity endorsements from Madonna and Rihanna — helped scale the brand. Looking ahead, Kirban is excited about "continued growth of our core business, coconut water, making it a mainstream staple in the U.S., but our international growth is incredible." My editor’s girlfriend picks this $2 billion company every time she goes to the bodega in Bushwick.

Mortgage relief or mirage? What’s up with that?

We sat down with Scott Trench, host of the BiggerPockets Money podcast, to talk about mortgage rates, interest rates, and their impact on home-buying.

While the Federal Reserve might lower short-term interest rates as they did last week, long-term borrowing rates, including those for mortgages, don't always follow suit directly. As he explains, "it's not a one-to-one relationship between the federal funds rate...and long-term borrowing rates, like 10 or 30-year treasuries, and then, of course, mortgages." This means that even with Fed rate cuts, mortgage rates can remain volatile or even rise.

This volatility creates a challenging environment for homebuyers. Trench predicts that 30-year mortgage rates will "largely stay where they're at or even rise up a little bit" over the next year or two. However, he also points out that "when mortgage rates drop...you're going to see people flooding in to refinance or consider purchasing or locking in those rates." This creates "strong pulses of demand in various markets," making it difficult to predict near-term housing market trends.

For homebuyers, a conservative strategy that accounts for potentially sustained high or rising interest rates is key.

Poll of the day: Coconuts!

Poll of the day: You’re skeptical about TikTok plan

We asked: Do you trust Rupert Murdoch and Larry Ellison to run TikTok?

You answered:

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ Yes (43 votes)

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 No (597 votes)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ One but not the other (and I'm not saying which) (57 votes)

697 Votes via @beehiiv polls