“Cheese is milk’s leap toward immortality.”

So said Clifton Fadimen, an American intellectual. Although I only know that because I clicked through to this recipe for making cannabis-infused cheese, and I only did that because one of Cheddar’s guests today, Adam Bierman, is a “cannabis futurist.” (As opposed to Marcel Proust, who was a madeleine pasteurist.) It’s been quite the journey I’ve been on, writing today’s newsletter!

Today's Cheddlines You Need2Know

• Recession odds ⬆️, says Goldman Sachs

• 'A Working Man' tops weekend box office

• Musk gives away two $1M checks in Wisconsin

• Has ‘buy now, pay later’ taken over shopping?

• 'Weed Empire' author: Weed makes the world better

Stone-cold sober over here.

—Matt Davis, Need2Know Chedditor

P.S. Who needs Michelangelo when a robot can carve you a marble sculpture on the ‘gram?

Quote of the Day

Should You Check Your 401(k) Today?

👎

(nope)

Recession odds ⬆️, says Goldman Sachs

The probability of a U.S. recession in the near future has gone from 20% to 35%, according to Goldman Sachs. The uptick comes as the global economy grapples with the disruptive forces of President Trump’s broad-reaching tariff policies.

“The upgrade from our previous 20% estimate (of a U.S. recession) reflects our lower growth baseline, the sharp recent deterioration in household and business confidence, and statements from White House officials indicating greater willingness to tolerate near-term economic weakness in pursuit of their policies,” the company wrote in a research note.

Goldman also tempered its GDP growth projection for the United States in 2025, bringing it down to 1.5% from an earlier 2.0%.

So, 35% is pretty high, but, um, it’s not 65%? If you told me the economy has a 65% chance of avoiding a recession, I’d say, “Great!” And in fact, that’s what I’ve just told you. Meanwhile apparently there is a 1 in 3,000 chance of my home burning down in a fire, according to this crazy website with random statistics on it. Gah!

'A Working Man' tops weekend box office

Nobody looks better in a shawl collar cardigan. Really.

Meanwhile, Jason “Action Grandad” Statham’s latest role as a construction worker with a covert military history took in $15 million this weekend, beating out Disney’s “Snow White.”

Directed by David Ayer and co-written by Sylvester Stallone, as well as, perhaps, a computer, the film's success is akin to Statham’s previous collaboration with Ayer, "The Beekeeper," which collected a hefty $162 million globally and is about a beekeeper who is [checks notes] a retired government assassin. Meanwhile, I watched “The Brutalist” over the weekend, which won ten Oscars and grossed $48.5 million worldwide. I paid for it with Amazon digital credit, so I didn’t really contribute to that total. Sigh.

Overall, box office returns are down 11% on the same time last year—Hollywood needs a shot in the arm. Right now analysts are pinning their hopes on the upcoming “Minecraft” movie, which is bound to be a [checks notes] cinematic masterpiece.

From @cheddar

Musk gives away two $1M checks in Wisconsin

Elon Musk bestowed $1 million checks on two Wisconsin voters this weekend, declaring them spokespeople for his political group as he rallied support for his agenda during a critical Wisconsin Supreme Court election that may have [checks notes] significant ramifications.

It comes as Wisconsin’s highest court is expected to rule on abortion rights, congressional redistricting, union power and voting rules that could affect the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential election in the swing state.

During a Green Bay event on Sunday, which attracted a crowd of 2,000, Musk emphatically expressed his support for Republican candidate Brad Schimel in the impending Wisconsin Supreme Court race. Donning a local cheesehead hat, Musk said, "I’m not phoning it in. I’m here in person.”

Musk has exerted his political influence through substantial financial backing, with over $20 million spent in support for Schimel. The election is set to determine the court's ideological balance.

Musk's defense for giving out the $1 million checks, articulated through his lawyers, positions the giveaways as an exercise of free speech, aiming to rally a grassroots movement against "activist judges," not to advocate directly for any particular candidate. I mean, sure. I’d need a lawyer to [checks notes] articulate my response to that argument.

Still, the argument seems supported by past precedents, including a Pennsylvania judge's ruling that previously allowed a similar Musk-backed campaign to continue.

The high-stakes election has broken national spending records, with over $81 million spent so far.

Has ‘buy now, pay later’ taken over shopping?

"There's a really low barrier to entry when it comes to buy now, pay later services,” said Sarah Rathner, senior writer at NerdWallet. “There's no credit check. There's no lengthy application process. It's about as quick as just making a purchase in the first place.”

However, this ease of access can also lead to what's often referred to as "phantom debt." In other words when you enter into these sort of installment plans, they’re not yet reported to the credit bureaus, so your credit stays intact. While missing payments will be reported, the initial debt itself might not be.

"Whether it's monitored or not, there's always consequences to debt because it can affect your ability to meet your other financial obligations," Rathner said. She emphasizes the importance of considering other bills and expenses. "If you're spending a lot of money every month on debt payments, your bills don't stop. You still need to pay to have a roof over your head to buy food."

Despite these concerns, BNPL does have its advantages. Rathner points out that it "can be a helpful tool when you're making a big purchase. You pay it back in four installments instead of making one lump sum payment. From the retailer's perspective, BNPL is also a good thing.

With the increasing popularity of BNPL, it's crucial for consumers to make [checks notes] informed decisions. Rathner advises, "Before you agree to any plan and commit to it, read the fine print, understand what you're going to owe in total to pay in installments, and what consequences there might be for you if you make late payments." She also stresses the importance of reviewing your budget: "Make sure you have the money to make these payments in full and on time until the item you've purchased is completely paid off."

As Rathner aptly puts it: "You do wanna be mindful whenever you're borrowing money."

I gave my mate Andy a grand in 2020 to put into his so-called “day trading scheme,” and haven’t heard much about it since. So much for mindful lending!

'Weed Empire' author: Weed makes the world better

The cannabis industry has undergone a dramatic transformation in recent years, evolving from a marginalized subculture to a burgeoning mainstream market. We sat down with Adam Bierman, author of "Weed Empire" and co-founder of MedMen, to talk about it.

“I am on a mission to mainstream marijuana,” Adam said. “I believe very much that it makes the world a safer, healthier, happier place.”

Although Bierman acknowledges the elephant in the room: “marijuana is still federally illegal.” But as a self-proclaimed “cannabis futurist,” Bierman is constantly thinking about “what the future of cannabis consumption looks like amongst mainstream society.”

Looking ahead, Bierman is optimistic. “I definitely believe that we are at the one-yard line in this march towards the end of prohibition,” he said. While acknowledging that “marijuana is much more mainstream than it was when I started,” he emphasizes the need for “federal and then the institutional financial acceptance of this as mainstream.”

He is “extremely confident that the opportunity is too large and the impact that cannabinoids have on the human body are too profound for this not to become legal and mature.” The remaining questions, he says, are “who’s going to control it? And where are we, as consumers, going to be able to purchase it?”