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Matt Davis — Need2Know Chedditor

News You Need2Know

• Stocks near all-time highs for the second day in a …

• Newly created Polymarket accounts bet big on US–Ir …

• American Airlines hikes bag fees — hitting basic e …

• You’ll be able to buy shares in OpenAI when it flo …

• Amazon CEO defends AI investment amid stock slide

What’s the stock market up to, eh?*

$SPX ( ▲ 0.62% ) $DJI ( ▲ 0.58% ) $NDX ( ▲ 0.83% )  

Companies mentioned in today’s newsletter

$STZ ( ▲ 8.53% )  $CRWV ( ▲ 3.49% )  $META ( ▲ 2.61% )  $SMPL ( ▼ 18.11% )  $POLYMARKET ( 0.0% )  $AAL ( ▼ 0.35% )  $UAL ( ▲ 1.42% )  $JBLU ( ▼ 2.18% )  $DAL ( ▼ 0.37% )  $LUV ( ▼ 0.47% )  $AMZN ( ▲ 5.61% )  

Stocks near all-time highs for the second day in a row

U.S. stocks swung higher Thursday as investors navigated the delicate balance between ceasefire optimism and persistent oil market concerns following the Iran conflict.

The S&P 500 $SPX ( ▲ 0.62% ) climbed 0.7% in afternoon trading after erasing early losses, now sitting just 2.1% below its all-time January high.

Oil prices remain the wild card. U.S. crude rose 1.4% to $95.78 per barrel after briefly nearing $103, with Brent crude adding 0.1% to $94.87. The Strait of Hormuz remains central to President Trump's demands of Iran.

Macquarie strategist Thierry Wizman told the Associated Press that upward pressure on oil prices may be "here to stay for a while" given how far apart U.S. and Iranian demands remain.

Constellation Brands $STZ ( ▲ 8.53% ) jumped 7.2% on strong quarterly results, though the Modelo and Robert Mondavi parent cited "limited near-term visibility" for pulling future forecasts. CoreWeave $CRWV ( ▲ 3.49% ) rallied 5.4% after announcing a $21 billion AI cloud deal with Meta Platforms $META ( ▲ 2.61% ) , which rose 3.4%. Simply Good Foods $SMPL ( ▼ 18.11% ) plunged 18.2% after disappointing revenue because people are sacrificing health food spends as they tighten their belts; CEO Joe Scalzo called results "unsatisfactory."

Newly created Polymarket accounts bet big on US–Iran ceasefire

How do you turn $72,000 into $200,000 in a single afternoon? Apparently, you create a brand-new Polymarket account and bet big on a ceasefire nobody saw coming, apart, of course, from you.

An analysis of blockchain data by the AP reveals that at least 50 freshly created accounts placed substantial "Yes" bets on a U.S.–Iran ceasefire Tuesday — hours before Trump announced the deal. The president warned earlier that day that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran didn't comply with his demands.

One wallet, created just 12 minutes before Trump's Truth Social post, walked away with an estimated $48,500 profit.

Rep. Blake Moore (R-Utah) didn't mince words: "It's highly unlikely that these are good-faith trades; it's much more likely that these are insiders with access to information ahead of the public."

This isn't the first time. Similar patterns emerged before the capture of Venezuela's Maduro and other Iran-related military actions.

"We can't have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets," said Georgia State professor Todd Phillips.

Amazingly, Polymarket $POLYMARKET ( 0.0% ) declined to comment.

Song of the Day: Randall King, ‘Thinkin’ Bout Drinkin’’

Here’s a self-released honky-tonk heartbreaker that feels destined for jukebox immortality, by West Texas-native Randall King.

American Airlines hikes bag fees — hitting basic economy flyers hardest

Packing light just became even more important for budget-conscious travelers.

American Airlines $AAL ( ▼ 0.35% ) announced Thursday it's raising checked bag fees, with basic economy passengers bearing the brunt of the increase. The move follows similar hikes from United Airlines $UAL ( ▲ 1.42% ) , JetBlue Airways $JBLU ( ▼ 2.18% ) Delta Air Lines $DAL ( ▼ 0.37% ) , and Southwest Airlines $LUV ( ▼ 0.47% ) over the past two weeks.

Starting with tickets booked Thursday, American will charge $50 for a first checked bag at the airport on domestic and short-haul international flights — a $10 increase. A second bag will run you $60. Savvy travelers can save $5 by checking bags through the airline's website or app.

Here's where it stings: Basic economy customers face even steeper fees beginning May 18. They'll pay $55 for their first bag and $65 for a second. The online discount still applies, bringing prices to $50 and $60 respectively.

That's not all. Starting May 18, all basic economy passengers — even those with elite status — must pay to select seats and will no longer qualify for complimentary or system-wide upgrades.

The culprit? The Iran war and its impact on jet fuel prices.

You’ll be able to buy shares in OpenAI when it floats

Good news for individual investors: when OpenAI goes public, you'll have a shot at getting in early (assuming the stock continues to go up after you buy it, of course).

CFO Sarah Friar confirmed Wednesday that the AI giant will "for sure" reserve a portion of IPO shares for retail investors — a rarity in today's market where institutional players typically gobble up the hottest offerings.

"AI needs to garner trust in everything that we do. That is part of why retail particularly speaks to me," Friar told CNBC. "It has to be that everyone partakes, that it isn't just that a very small group, and everyone else gets left behind."

The company tested retail interest during its recent funding round and saw "really strong demand." OpenAI initially aimed to raise $1 billion from individual investors but ended up with three times that amount — the largest private placement ever for participating banks. One bank's system actually crashed when investors rushed to access the data room.

Now valued at a staggering $852 billion, OpenAI won't stay private forever. "At our scale, raising equity forever doesn't make any sense," Friar said.

Drawing from her Square IPO experience and Elon Musk's playbook with Tesla and SpaceX, Friar sees broad ownership as essential: "Everybody wants to own part of a rocket company — I hope everyone wants to own part of ChatGPT," she said.

Quote of the Day

Amazon CEO defends AI investment amid stock slide

Amazon $AMZN ( ▲ 5.61% ) CEO Andy Jassy wants investors to know the company isn't gambling with its record-breaking capital expenditures.

"We're not investing approximately $200 billion in capex in 2026 on a hunch," Jassy wrote in his annual shareholder letter released yesterday.

The letter is a data-heavy defense of Amazon's biggest bets, from AIand custom chips to satellite internet and ultra-fast delivery, and the numbers back him up.

Jassy revealed that AWS AI revenue has hit a $15 billion annual run rate — a figure Amazon hasn't previously disclosed. The company's internal chips business is now generating over $20 billion annually. Demand is so fierce that two major customers asked to buy all of Amazon's available Graviton chip capacity for 2026. Amazon declined.

"We have never seen a technology more quickly adopted than AI," Jassy writes. "Amazon is smack in the middle of this land rush, and companies are choosing AWS for AI."

He acknowledges that free cash flow dropped from $38 billion to $11 billion last year due to massive infrastructure investments, but Jassy isn't apologizing.

"We're not going to be conservative in how we play this — we're investing to be the meaningful leader,” he wrote.

His message to shareholders? "It's hard to overstate my optimism for what's ahead."

Given the stock’s whipsawing moves over recent months, let’s hope he’s right:

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Should you check your 401(k) today?

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What about “nearing record highs” puts you off?

Poll of the day: It’s World-Famous-5-7-5™ Time

Poll of the day: ‘Back’ to the drawing board

We asked: “Do you believe Adam Back when he says, ‘Clearly I'm not Satoshi, that's my position.’” — about being the guy who secretly founded Bitcoin.

You answered:

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ Yes. I believe the New York Times' investigative journalists would get something like this wrong after years of work. (39)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ Yes. I believe that the founder of Bitcoin is a Japanese man called "Satoshi Nakamoto." (26)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 No. This guy is blatantly lying so people don't come after his $118 billion in stashed crypto. (274)
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ Say, is he single? (70)

409 Votes via @beehiiv polls

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