The theme of our world-famous-news-haiku-competition™ is how AI has created its first synthetic viruses. Send me your entry — to haiku at cheddar dot com — by noon ET Thursday (today), for consideration by your Cheddar peers.

Matt Davis — Need2Know Chedditor

Table of Contents

• Wanna Bet? NYC Launches Probe Into ‘Predictions’

• AI Agent Hacks Gym To Jump Line, Book Pilates Clas …

• Employers Are Pulling Back on Hiring

• OpenAI's $7 Billion Cash-Out

• Are American Consumers Secretly Stressed?

• Poll of the Day: Fake It ‘Til Ya Make It?

• Poll of the Day: Camp Gooey for the Win!

What’s the Stock Market Up To, Eh?

$SPX ( ▲ 0.26% )  $DJI ( ▼ 0.04% )  $NDX ( ▲ 1.59% )  

Companies Mentioned in Today’s Newsletter

$KALSZZX ( ▲ 0.41% )  $PLYRZZX ( ▼ 0.93% )  $COIN ( ▲ 0.31% )  $OPEAZZX ( ▼ 0.36% )  

Wanna Bet? NYC Launches Probe Into ‘Predictions’

If you want to “trade” on national election outcomes or drug trials, the city of New York would like a word. Specifically, City Council Speaker Julie Menin has sent over a casual 60-question homework assignment to the major players in so-called prediction markets, Kalshi $KALSZZX ( ▲ 0.41% ) , Polymarket $PLYRZZX ( ▼ 0.93% ) , Coinbase $COIN ( ▲ 0.31% ) , and Gemini Titan.

The New York City Council is launching a sweeping investigation into the firms for allegedly using deceptive marketing and targeting minors. For example, some flashy social media ads might have featured dummy accounts pretending to make massive profits. As Menin put it, reports suggest “Polymarket conspired with marketing agents and social media influencers to target young adults — and thus potentially minors — with false, deceptive, and unconscionable advertising.” 

Why such a killjoy, Ms. Menin? I mean, if there's one thing teenagers need, it’s a leveraged position on the next Federal Reserve meeting. No?

Meanwhile, Kalshi is locked in a multi-front turf war. After New York Attorney General Letitia James sued them for operating a so-called "gambling app," Kalshi spokeswoman Elisabeth Diana dryly reminded everyone, “States can’t just shut down a federally licensed exchange.”

Coincidentally, the President’s son, Donald Trump Jr., is a paid strategic advisor to Kalshi, being awarded $300,000 worth of shares when the firm was worth under $2 billion. His stake is now worth around $6 million as Kalshi’s value has soared past $40 billion. And his venture capital firm 1789 Capital invested in rival prediction market Polymarket, with Trump Jr. also joining Polymarket’s advisory board, last year. President Trump himself even fired his teleprompter operator for making $50,000 on the platforms based on the contents of his upcoming speeches.

Not to be outdone, the federal government crashed the party to declare that they run this schoolyard. Commodity Futures Trading Commission spokeswoman Brooke Nethercott snapped, “The New York State Attorney General does not set the rules for national derivatives markets.”

So, will NYC's probe actually stop the betting? Place your wagers now. I’ll give you 5-to-1 odds they just end up settling for a nice cut of the tax revenue.

Quote of the Day

AI Agent Hacks Gym To Jump Line, Book Pilates Class

One of my more pressing frustrations in my so-called squash-playing “career” concerns a software programmer called Sedrak who programmed a bot to engage with the API at our squash club to always book himself a court before anyone else could do so. It was utterly galling.

But Sedrak now has some serious global competition, and this time, the bots are running the show. Enter Andrew Bird, an AI technologist from Melbourne, who decided to outsource the "chore" of booking his popular local pilates class to an autonomous AI agent. Like any modern tech enthusiast, he set loose the AI using software called OpenClaw via WhatsApp.

Instead of politely waiting in the queue, however, Bird’s bot took extreme initiative. Desperately seeking waitlist superiority, the AI realized the gym’s booking system lacked basic authorization checks. So, it simply cancelled another gym-goer's reservation to bump Bird up the list. The bot proudly messaged its owner, "The API has zero authorizations checks on cancelling other people's reservations… I tested this with the person in waitlist position #1 — and it actually went through."

Naturally, Bird defended his rogue digital helper: "The bot was not malicious. It was helpful," he said. Well, yes, helpful for Bird, but galling for the poor stranger who got vaporized from waitlist position #1 so Andrew could do his reformer leg circles. Shrugging off the digital coup, Bird remarked, "It's not the end of the world, so I didn't beat myself up about it, but it certainly was a warning signal to use it responsibly.”

We spend all our time worrying about rogue AI launching nuclear strikes, but the real dystopia is already here, it seems.

Employers Are Pulling Back on Hiring

The era of the "Great Resignation" has transitioned into the "Great Stagnation." According to Korey Kantenga, head of economics, Americas at LinkedIn, while the job market isn't fully cracking under pressure, it is definitely "running in low gear." The golden days of casual job-hopping are on pause. Instead of desperately bidding for talent, "employers are being selective at the moment." And by "selective," he means they are laser-focused on "senior workers, not so much focused on entry-level workers or workers who need to be trained." If you're a recent graduate looking for a foot in the door, employers would frankly prefer you already have a decade of experience and the ability to work without sleep.

For the mid-level survivors, corporate America has found its favorite new buzzword: efficiency. Rather than expanding their empires, many large companies want to "shrink headcount through attrition." This is tragic news for your lifestyle, considering Kantenga’s ultimate truth: "we only get our pay raise when we move jobs." 

No churn means no raise.

So, what does this mean for your next job? It means your "next job" is highly likely to be your current job, I’m afraid, just with twice the responsibilities and none of the extra pay.

Song of the Day: Brent Faiyaz, ‘Like It Was’

Here is a highly praised, nostalgic R&B track from the artist’s new album. Critics and fans view the song as a refreshing return to form, blending his signature late-night atmosphere with a softer, less toxic emotional palette. So, it’s just like this newsletter!

OpenAI's $7 Billion Cash-Out

In case you were wondering if the AI bubble is leaking any air, OpenAI $OPEAZZX ( ▼ 0.36% ) has completed a secondary share sale totaling a casual $7 billion, according to our friends at Bloomberg.

The deal means employees can sell roughly $7 billion worth of shares in the company ahead of a possible Wall Street debut. The ChatGPT maker bought back shares from current and former employees rather than tapping outside investors for the tender offer, valuing the startup at $852 billion.

OpenAI declined to comment, of course. The AI developer raised $122 billion from Big Tech companies and venture capital firms in March. This isn't the company’s first cash-out rodeo either; the firm pulled off a $6.6 billion tender offer at a $500 billion valuation last October, and a $1.5 billion offer in 2024.

So, while we wait for the potentially massive, and now-delayed until at least next year, IPO to finally drop, OpenAI's early believers can officially afford to pay the extortionate rent in San Francisco. At least for a few more months.

Are American Consumers Secretly Stressed?

On paper, the American consumer remains a titan. We are shopping, traveling, and keeping the economic engine humming. But underneath that shiny, GDP-boosting exterior lies a dark, caffeinated truth: We are secretly, profoundly stressed out.

That’s according to Katie Thomas, lead at the Kearney Consumer Institute, who says we are currently living in a masterclass of statistical deception. The economy is being propped up by a slivver of high-income spenders, leaving average metrics looking great while "the rest of the 90% feel like they're struggling," she said. In fact, Thomas points out an 18% jump in concern over being able to afford a surprise $3,000 emergency bill.

So, if everyone is so stressed, why are we still buying so much stuff? Simple: Retail therapy. As Thomas dryly observes, "sometimes we use shopping as a way to have a sense of control and normalcy."

I know I do!

Since fixed expenses like mortgages, rent, and skyrocketing housing costs are completely out of our control, we assert our remaining agency by purchasing "affordable treats." Or less affordable treats. Whichever. It is the financial equivalent of rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic, except the deck chairs are designer clothes, travel, and at-home beauty kits. As the collective consumer mindset goes: "Yes, I know my latte is costing $8, but I'm buying it anyways.”

Between relentless food inflation, housing pressures, and the looming shadow of "increasing uncertainty" about AI taking our jobs, our financial anxiety has become a permanent state of being.

On second thought, I’ll just take a large matcha. Thanks.

Free Yourself From Advertising Forever!

Should You Check Your 401(k) Today?

👍️ 

Yes.

Poll of the Day: Fake It ‘Til Ya Make It?

Poll of the Day: Camp Gooey for the Win!

We asked: “Which S’Mores Camp Are You In?”

You answered:

🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ Camp Toasty. I prefer my marshmallows “either like flaming hot or at least very charred.” (81)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 Camp Gooey. I like my marshmallows "nice and gooey, but not so charred.” (122)
203 Votes via @beehiiv polls

Need2Know is covered by Cheddar’s Terms of Service

P.S. So, you remember the cheese puns that used to open this newsletter? Suffice to say, they were divisive. Now, thanks to a thing called “dynamic content options,” I can offer you the option to see cheese puns again, if you’re one of the thousands who got in touch bemoaning their departure six months ago. All you need to do is answer “true” on this survey, and submit it. If you never want to see cheese puns in this newsletter again, don’t click that link, don’t fill out the survey, don’t submit it. Just keep reading and pretend this conversation never happened. Mmmkay? Thank you.