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- White House warns staff to stop betting on the Iran war
White House warns staff to stop betting on the Iran war
Plus: The justice department opens an investigation into the NFL
Harriet Feldman won this week’s world-famous news haiku competition™ with this beauty about coffee prices shooting up to $10 a pound:
To bean, not to bean,
War weather tariffs hit Joe.
Grounds for tea for me.
Congratulations, Harriet! Here’s your celebratory gif:

(Giphy.com)
And here’s how y’all voted on the competition, Cheddariños:
🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ Black nectar of morn', More costly you have become, Forsooth, poop I must ~Richard Brown (81)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 To bean, not to bean, War weather tariffs hit Joe. Grounds for tea for me. ~Harriet Feldman (117)
🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ A pound of beans for ten bucks, means five for a single shot. I'm done, covfefe …~Hans Heinrich Leuthold (67)
🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️ Ten dollar latte; Tiny cup, enormous bill; Tip screen judges me. ~Joseph DeFini (107)
🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️ For a cup of Joe, no more “can you spare a dime?” Give the bank a try. ~Joan Benson (110)
482 Votes via @beehiiv polls
This week’s world-famous news haiku competition™ is about how the White House has warned staff not to profit by placing bets on prediction markets about the Iran War. Send me your entry — to haiku at cheddar dot com — by noon ET Thursday, for consideration by your Cheddar peers.
And now, ze news!
Matt Davis — Need2Know Chedditor
News You Need2Know
What’s the stock market up to, eh?*
Companies mentioned in today’s newsletter
White House warns staff to stop betting on the Iran war

(Google Nano Banana Pro)
The White House is reminding staff to keep their hands off prediction markets following suspiciously well-timed bets surrounding President Trump's Iran policy announcements.
A staff-wide email from the White House Management Office on March 24 warned employees against leveraging their positions for financial gain in futures markets. The warning came one day after Trump announced a sudden pause in Iran strikes — and roughly 15 minutes before that announcement, more than $760 million in oil futures changed hands in under two minutes.
Clearly the strongly worded email didn’t work. More recently, three Polymarket $POLYMARKET ( 0.0% ) accounts earned over $600,000 by correctly predicting the timing of this week's Iranian cease-fire.
White House spokesman Davis Ingle confirmed the warning's authenticity: "The only special interest that will ever guide President Trump is the best interest of the American people,” he said.
Although you couldn’t necessarily say the same thing for his staff?
Critics aren't satisfied. "It is disgusting," said investor Tom Ellsworth on the Trump-friendly "PBD Podcast." "The timing of this certainly stinks."
Congressional Democrats are pushing back harder. Senator Richard Blumenthal argues prediction markets "are turning war into a casino game, and creating a market for national security leaks."
Senator Andy Kim added: "Corruption and exploitation are thriving right now within the gaps and loopholes of prediction markets."
The senators have introduced legislation to ban war-related prediction markets entirely.
Artemis II crew returns to Earth after historic Moon mission

(NASA)
After 10 days circling the moon, NASA's Artemis II crew came home on Friday night.
Astronauts Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, Christina Koch, and Canadian Space Agency astronaut Jeremy Hansen woke up Thursday to the songs "Run to the Water" by Live and "Free" by Zac Brown Band as they prepared for their historic return to Earth.
The crew successfully completed their final major maneuver — Return Trajectory Correction burn number 3 — positioning their Orion capsule for reentry. They hit Earth's atmosphere at 400,000 feet, traveling 30 times the speed of sound, with splashdown at 8:07 p.m. ET off the coast of San Diego.
Commander Wiseman took a moment to thank international partners on the livestream; "We just wanted to give a huge shout out to the ESA Airbus team, to our friends in the Netherlands, in Germany and at the Glenn Research Center. This vehicle powered us, and it propelled us from the Earth to the moon and back with extreme precision."
The mission wasn't without challenges. A recurring toilet malfunction and a leak in the service module's propulsion system tested the crew and mission controllers alike. In a touching moment, the astronauts identified two new lunar craters, naming one "Integrity" for their spacecraft and "Carroll" for Wiseman's late wife.
Song of the Day: Live, ‘Run To The Water’
If it’s good enough for astronauts to return to Planet Earth, this song is good enough for you to start your Monday.
We talked to the guy investing millions in American trains

Siemens Mobility North America, $SIEMENS.NSE ( ▼ 1.15% ) led by CEO Tobias Bauer, is making a massive $220 million bet on the future of American rail, driven by increased ridership and a landmark partnership with Amtrak.
Bauer, who leads the 4,500-member team, said their work is focused on creating "true impact and being able to allow our customers to move passengers and goods safely across the country".
The company's new advanced manufacturing facility in Lexington, North Carolina, is central to this effort, expanding production capacity for rolling stock like the new Amtrak Aero fleet. Bauer is confident in the market's demand for high-quality rail travel. “I'm very bold on American rail. I believe that this is what the public wants,” he said. He anticipates that new modern trains with Wi-Fi and reduced noise will drastically increase demand.
Especially true when you look at the price of jet fuel lately.
Bauer noted that the long-term partnership with Amtrak is key to delivering “what the American people deserve in terms of train travel.” The new Aero coaches, set to roll out this summer, are designed for maximum comfort and connectivity. Bauer encourages passengers to “get on that train once it's out there and experience... the comfort of boarding, the comfort of the seats, the connectivity you will experience.”
“Siemens is walking the talk when it comes to manufacturing jobs in the tech industry of the United States,” Bauer said.
Why it’s harder than it used to be to upgrade to first class on the ✈️

(Google Nano Banana Pro)
Remember when loyal flyers could count on complimentary upgrades to first class? Those days are largely gone.
Twenty years ago, Delta Air Lines $DAL ( ▼ 0.02% ) gave away roughly 85% of its first-class seats to loyal customers. Today, the airline sells over 70% of those premium seats outright — a transformation that's made Delta the most profitable U.S. carrier.
"When you think about where the industry was 20 years ago, we basically just sold main cabin seats," said Joe Esposito, Delta's chief commercial officer, talking to the New York Times. "What we all thought back then was, 'Can you make a premium product that people are willing to pay for?'"
The answer was a resounding yes.
Premium seats on U.S. airlines have grown 69% in the past decade, according to aviation research firm Cirium. Airlines have invested billions redesigning cabins with lie-flat beds, privacy doors, and luxury amenities.
The shift reflects rising economic inequality. Over 90% of Delta's revenue comes from households earning more than $100,000 annually.
"Coming out of the pandemic, people really decided, 'I need to start spending my time and my dollars on experience,'" explained Nat Pieper, American's $AAL ( ▼ 0.44% ) chief commercial officer.
Once passengers experience premium cabins, they rarely go back.
"People don't like to downgrade," Esposito said. "Once they've been in a nice cabin, their natural inclination is to stay there or go even higher."
Quote of the Day
I'm glad the DOJ is tackling this important issue, as I urged them to do last month.
Justice department opens investigation into NFL

(Getty Images)
The U.S. Department of Justice has launched an investigation into the National Football League over concerns that watching America's favorite sport has become too expensive and complicated for fans, the Wall Street Journal reports.
The probe comes amid growing frustration that consumers need multiple subscriptions across various streaming platforms to watch all NFL games — a far cry from the days when most games aired on free broadcast television.
The NFL defended its distribution model, stating it is "the most fan- and broadcast-friendly league," with 87% of games available on local TV. The league pointed to its 2025 season as "its most viewed since 1989," calling it a reflection of "the strength of the NFL distribution model and its wide availability to all fans."
The investigation follows a letter from Republican Sen. Mike Lee requesting federal agencies review the league's antitrust exemption granted under the 1961 Sports Broadcasting Act.
"Much has changed in sports broadcasting since 1961, raising new questions about the NFL's antitrust exemption," Lee said Thursday. "I'm glad the DOJ is tackling this important issue, as I urged them to do last month."
Fox CEO Lachlan Murdoch acknowledged at a recent investor conference that any increased NFL programming costs "would float through to local affiliates, to our distributors, and ultimately to consumers and to fans."
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