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Matt Davis — Need2Know Chedditor

Table of Contents

• Why Investors Should Hope For a Rate Hike

• Kiss Goodbye to the American Housing Market

• U.S. Military Now Has Weapons in Space, It Says

• Apple Joins TV’s Big League With Emmy Wins

• The Bahamas Wedding Gift From Russia With Love

• Poll of the Day: From Russia With Expectations?

• Poll of the Day: AI, Caramba!

What’s the Stock Market Up To, Eh?

$SPX ( ▼ 0.45% )  $DJI ( ▼ 0.63% )  $NDX ( ▲ 1.59% )  

Companies Mentioned in Today’s Newsletter

$AAPL ( ▼ 0.52% )  $WBD ( ▼ 0.25% )  $NFLX ( ▼ 3.01% )  

Why Investors Should Hope For a Rate Hike

For the past 15 years, stock investors saw rate hikes as the ultimate nightmare. But as the Federal Reserve prepares to raise rates, investors should rejoice. That's because it beats the alternative, says the Wall Street Journalist's Spencer Jakob. 

The twisted reality of today's market is that the Fed's overnight rate isn't the real monster in the closet. The 10-year Treasury yield is. Back in July, when Fed Chair Kevin Warsh left rates unchanged, his "clumsy explanation" spooked bond traders and sent the benchmark 10-year yield surging past 5% for the first time since 2007. That's Jakob's thinking, at least, although treasury yields have had a little help from the Treasury. 

If the Fed hesitates again out of fear, investors risk convincing the bond market that rate setters have lost their nerve on inflation. Billionaire bond manager Jeffrey Gundlach captured Wall Street's growing skepticism: “There’s something about Kevin Warsh that I don’t fully trust,” he told Jakob, adding that he “would expect long-term interest rates to rise fairly significantly in the aftermath” if the Fed chooses to hold steady again.

Sure, President Trump might voice objections from the sidelines and demand rate cuts. But as Jakob notes, “be careful what you wish for.” A routine quarter-point rate increase won't crush Main Street or Wall Street. An out-of-control Treasury market will. It’s thinking that I tend to agree with, which I must say is rather unusual for an editorial in this particular paper.

Quote of the Day

Kiss Goodbye to the American Housing Market

Investors should hope for rate hikes. Yes. But homebuyers? Homesellers? Not so much. 30-year mortgage rates are sprinting toward the psychological barrier of 7%. That's likely to send the housing market further into freeze-town. 

On one side, you have lucky legacy homeowners like Jonathan Pearl. He's holding onto his $900,000 Massachusetts property with a locked-in 2.875% rate. His stance on selling? “It’s not a strain on our finances. We can keep it for a few years and then figure it out," he told the WSJ. 

Meanwhile, prospective buyers are staring at $5,000 monthly payments on $850,000 homes. Real-estate agent Maria Bozza suggested buyers cope by renting out their second floor. She did so while sitting on a windowsill at an open house that drew a grand total of one family.

Michael Fratantoni, Chief Economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, said: “You have to think as a mortgage borrower, you are competing against every government in the world and every other issuer as well.” He adds that “a jump in rates like this will certainly cause [prospective home buyers] to pause.”

But the peak of modern house-hunting anxiety comes from open-house attendee Rakesh Karki. Touring a $550,000 cottage, he summed up the dread of his generation: “Now it’s almost 7%... it’s tough to deal with,” before dropping the kicker: “AI is going to take all the jobs. You never know when you’re going to lose your job."

When signing a 30-year mortgage feels like competing against sovereign nations and your robot replacement, no wonder buyers are backing away.

U.S. Military Now Has Weapons in Space, It Says

The U.S. military has admitted to the world that it has weapons orbiting Earth. Air Force Secretary Troy Meink said “the United States now has on-orbit space control weapons capable of defending the joint force against hostile adversary action.”

But when pressed on whether we're talking about satellite jammers or "Golden Dome" missile defense interceptors with "flight-ready hardware," Meink clammed up. He claimed that disclosing further details “would actually not benefit that deterrence.”

That's right. America's deterrence strategy in orbit boils down to: "Trust us, we’ve got something super powerful up there, but it's a secret."

Security experts were quick to point out that threatening rivals with an invisible mystery box isn't how deterrence works. Clayton Swope, a former CIA technical intelligence officer, told the FT that Meink was “too vague” to intimidate anyone, explaining that adversaries “would need to know more about the destructive potential of the weapon and what general line — even a hazy understanding of the line — they would have to cross before the U.S. would use it.”

Rather than scaring rivals into submission, experts warn this cryptic flex could backfire and spark an orbital arms race. Victoria Samson of the Secure World Foundation told the FT: “This becomes a self-enforcing cycle and eventually someone is going to use one of those weapons.” Meanwhile, Sam Lair of the Foreign Policy Research Institute observed that the disclosure simply provides “rhetorical ammunition for boosters of existing or new programs elsewhere.”

Let’s blow each other up, people. Yeah!

Song of the Day: Ezra Collective, ‘El Corazón’

Here’s a high-energy track showcasing the Mercury Prize-winning quintet's evolving musicianship, just like this newsletter.

Apple Joins TV’s Big League With Emmy Wins

Tech titan Apple $AAPL ( ▼ 0.52% ) dethroned long-time leaders HBO $WBD ( ▼ 0.25% ) and Netflix $NFLX ( ▼ 3.01% ) at the 2026 Emmy Awards. The station took home 28 trophies, led by a record 14 wins for its comedy standout Widow’s Bay. Accepting the top prize, creator Katie Dippold paid tribute to “the wonderful weirdos” on her team. Then she thanked her benevloent tech overlord: “They truly just let us do this weird show.”

At the official after-party, top Apple executive Eddy Cue led a fist-raising tequila-shot toast. He said: “When we started this seven years ago, it’s hard to imagine that we’d be here today,” while exclaiming, “I’m pinching myself, honestly.” Even new Apple CEO John Ternus joined the celebration: “At Apple, we always focus on the customer, build the best thing that we can on the product side, and the Apple TV team is doing the exact same thing with TV shows," he said. 

Hollywood talent agent Richard Weitz applauded Apple’s deep-pockets strategy, noting, “They’re serious, they’re spending money, and they’re making a lot of programming — they’ve become absolutely critical to our marketplace."

While Apple TV+ won big on critical prestige, hardly anyone is actually tuning in. Nielsen data reveals Apple accounts for a microscopic 0.5% of total U.S. TV viewing time. In fact, Widow’s Bay was the single least-watched nominee in the best comedy category.

While traditional Hollywood media giants slash budgets, Apple’s secret formula is writing blank checks to win shiny trophies. They don't care if anyone's watching. I must say, I rather admire their approach. Plus: Widow’s Bay is good. I recommend it!

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The Bahamas Wedding Gift From Russia With Love

I love a "low-key private wedding," don't you? Particularly if a Russian businessman with ties to Vladimir Putin bankrolls the after-party. In the Bahamas. At least, that's how Donald Trump Jr. and his wife Bettina Anderson feel. When they celebrated their nuptials, they posted on Instagram thanking “our dear friend Umar [Kremlev].” He had hosted “two incredible nights of celebrations," they wrote. 

Kremlev is the head of the International Boxing Association, a former member of the Russian nationalist biker gang the Night Wolves, and a man who once gifted Putin a diamond boxing glove. Sounds like a very savory character. He doesn't even have a longstanding relationship with Trump Jr., and a spokesperson for brother Eric Trump said he didn't even know who Kremlev was. So, what was he expecting to get out of paying for the wedding party? That's the question vexing ethicists and lawmakers.

Representative Robert Garcia posted on X: “Umar Kremlev spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on the president’s son... What did he get in return? We need answers."

The newlyweds insist everyone is being dramatic. In their Instagram response, they complained it was “unfortunate that something so personal and happy can be recast as something political or sinister.” They added: “Friendship doesn’t require a political motive. Generosity doesn’t automatically come with an agenda... And sometimes a wedding gift is simply a wedding gift”. They capped it off with a definitive shout in all-caps: “NO CONSPIRACY, NO MYSTERY."

I'm not sure that's how friendship works in Russia, guys. Have you seen the movie Eastern Promises? Because I’m pretty sure that’s how it works.

Should You Check Your 401(k) Today?

👎️ 

Nope.

Poll of the Day: From Russia With Expectations?

Poll of the Day: AI, Caramba!

We asked: “The only control or ‘guardrails’ that AI needs is a STRONG AND SMART (High IQ!) PRESIDENT, and the U.S.A. has that, in spades!” Discuss.

You answered:

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ I agree that the president has the best interest of the country at heart and is best placed to make determinations about the regulation of AI. (8)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 I think the fact that the bosses of AI companies are asking for guardrails means they're needed. (506)
514 Votes

via @beehiiv polls

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