Will a nuke go off in 2026? Don't bet on it!

At least, not on Polymarket. Plus: SCOTUS blocks redrawing of NYC's only GOP-held congressional district.

Author

Matt Davis
March 05, 2026

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Happy Thursday, !

This week’s world-famous news haiku competition™ is about the Iran… war? conflict? kerfuffle? ado? spat? mess? brouhaha? difference of opinions? Let’s just call it “the Iran situation.” Send me your entry — to haiku at cheddar dot com — by noon ET today, for consideration by your Cheddar peers.

There’s also some news you Need2Know…

Matt Davis — Need2Know Chedditor

News You Need2Know

What’s the stock market up to, eh?

Companies mentioned in today’s newsletter

Don’t you wish you could bet on whether a nuke will go off this year?

This is something you could place a bet, or “prediction” on, depending on whether you think of prediction markets as gambling, until just now, when it suddenly wasn’t…

The controversial world of prediction markets is once again in the spotlight, as Polymarket $POLYMARKET ( 0.0% ) withdrew its "Nuclear weapon detonation by...?" event after [checks notes] widespread social media backlash. The market, which invited traders to bet on the likelihood of a nuclear weapon being detonated, had amassed over $838,000 in trading volume before its removal. Contracts tied to timelines such as March 31, June 30, and before 2027 reflected serious activity, while Polymarket briefly posted a sobering 22% probability of nuclear detonation by year-end. That’s two coin tosses, more or less.

Critics were quick to condemn the market. Prediction market analyst Dustin “Defcon 2” Gouker told Decrypt, “I think it’s pretty clear we shouldn’t have betting on nuclear weapons being used in a conflict.” He added, “Whatever small amount of utility we might get from learning the probability of that happening is offset by how terrible it is to let people speculate on that outcome.”

So this is about good taste? Morality?

In that case, what do we do about findings from blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps, which reported that six suspected insiders collectively earned $1.2 million on Polymarket, allegedly predicting U.S. strikes on Iran hours before their occurrence. Similar allegations against prediction markets have surfaced over insider trading during Venezuela’s political turmoil to bets tied to classified military intelligence in Israel.

Supreme Court blocks redraw of NYC GOP district ahead of 2026

Kate McKinnon on SNL playing a judge who died, making room for Bret Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court. President Obama had asked this judge to step aside during his tenure so that he could appoint a successor, and she refused. Can you guess who it is?

The Supreme Court issued an order halting the redrawing of the 11th Congressional District in New York City— currently the city’s only Republican-held seat. The district, represented by Congresswoman Nicole Malliotakis, was set to be redrawn after a January ruling by a New York state court judge, which cited racial discrimination concerns. In other words, the lower court judge agreed with plaintiffs in a lawsuit arguing that the way the district was drawn was denying minority voters fair representation.

Justice Samuel “Nope!“ Alito, siding with the court’s conservative majority, called the state judge's ruling "blatantly discriminatory on the basis of race." Against white people, who make up the majority of the district and the country. Alito wrote, “That is unadorned racial discrimination, an inherently 'odious' activity that violates the Fourteenth Amendment's Equal Protection Clause except in the 'most extraordinary case.’”

The decision has sparked outrage among the court’s liberal justices, with Justice Sonia “Sí!” Sotomayor penning a fiery dissent. Criticizing the abrupt nature of the order, she wrote, “Time and again, this Court has said that federal courts should not meddle with state election laws ahead of an election. Today, the Court says: except for this one.”

Quote of the Day

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I think the Iran situation is getting out of hand, and I think that U.S. President Donald Trump miscalculated enormously.

U.S. stocks rebound after strong economic updates and an easing of oil prices

That’s how it was yesterday. But what about tomorrow? #NotFinancialAdvice

After two days of volatility, U.S. stock markets bounced back on Wednesday, thanks to moderating oil prices and encouraging signs from the economy. Brent crude briefly surpassed $84 per barrel before retreating to $81.51 — only a slight 0.1% rise — while U.S. crude edged up 0.5% to $74.90.

Two key reports fueled optimism. One revealed accelerated growth in U.S. service industries, including real estate and finance, at the fastest pace since mid-2022. Crucially, the report also noted slower price increases in these sectors. Another report highlighted an uptick in hiring from U.S. employers, raising hopes for Friday’s comprehensive jobs report.

Despite the rebound, uncertainties over the war with Iran linger. “I think the Iran situation is getting out of hand, and I think that U.S. President Donald Trump miscalculated enormously,” said Francis “Understatement“ Lun, CEO of Venturesmart. “The situation is very grim.”

But tell us how you really feel, Francis!

Meanwhile, select sectors surged. Crypto-related stocks jumped as Bitcoin $BTC ( ▼ 3.44% ) topped $73,000, retail and travel companies strengthened, and major tech companies like Nvidia $NVDA ( ▼ 0.46% ) (+1.5%) and Amazon $AMZN ( ▲ 0.55% ) (+3.3%) led gains in the S&P 500.

Record numbers of Americans are raiding their 401(k) savings

Is this you?

Financial emergencies are driving more Americans to tap into their retirement savings, with a record number of workers taking hardship withdrawals in 2025. According to Vanguard Group, 6% of workers in 401(k) plans administered by the firm took hardship distributions last year, up from 4.8% in 2024 and a pre-pandemic average of about 2%.

The median withdrawal amount was $1,900, and top reasons included avoiding foreclosure, eviction, and covering medical expenses. Not included: avocado toast.

While most Americans are faring well, Vanguard notes divergent financial pressures affecting a subset of workers. “People are saving more, remaining invested, and being automatically rebalanced in a professional way,” said David Stinnett, head of strategic retirement consulting at Vanguard, talking to the Wall Street Journal. Record stock market performance helped push the average 401(k) balance to $167,970, a 13% increase compared to 2024.

Recent legislative changes have also contributed to the rise in withdrawals. Since 2018, Congress has loosened requirements for hardship distributions. A 2022 law expanded allowable reasons, permitting penalty-free withdrawals for victims of domestic abuse, declared disasters, and emergencies up to $1,000 every three years. Additionally, the spread of automatic enrollment has brought more workers into 401(k) plans—with 61% of plans using auto-enrollment in 2025, up from just 34% in 2013.

Song of the Day: Kinga Glyk, ‘Tears in Heaven’

A 2016 bass-only cover of a decent Eric Clapton song played by a beautiful woman? What’s not to like?!

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Apple unveiled a $599 Macbook, but is it good?

I WILL TAKE ONE GREEN ONE PLS. Image courtesy Apple $AAPL ( ▼ 1.24% )  

Apple $AAPL ( ▼ 1.24% ) is breaking its “we’re expensive” tradition with its newest offering: A cheap MacBook! The MacBook Neo, priced at just $599, is a fraction of the cost of the company’s typically premium devices. Launching March 11, with preorders starting today, the Neo positions Apple to compete more aggressively with high-end Chromebooks and budget laptops.

The MacBook Neo retains the elegance of Apple's design philosophy. It features a lightweight aluminum case, four striking color options (silver, indigo, "blush" pink, and "citrus" lime-green — I mentioned the green one, right?), and matching keyboards. It boasts two USB-C ports, a headphone jack, and up to 16 hours of battery life. Upgrade to the $699 model for Touch ID and double the storage from 256GB to 512GB. By contrast, a new Macbook Air is $1,099.

However, affordability comes at a cost: your firstborn son. The Neo is powered by the A18 Pro chip, a previous-generation processor that first appeared in the iPhone 16 Pro (that’s my phone!), which may struggle with intensive multitasking, much like this newsletter. The device also lacks backlit keyboards (the horror) and offers a simpler two-speaker setup compared to the four-speaker audio on the MacBook Air (mamma mia!). Its 13-inch display and 1080p camera are solid but not cutting-edge, and external display compatibility is limited to one 4K monitor.

Still, whaddaya want for $600? My sense is that this stuff is all you really need if you’re a regular Mac user. I used to have a MacBook Pro, then downgraded to an Air, and still feel it’s too much powah, right, Scotty?

You can probably even edit a video in Adobe Premiere Pro on that little puppy. Christ!

Apple’s push into affordable laptops could reshape the education market, where Google $GOOGL ( ▼ 1.47% )  devices make up nearly half of global K-12 purchases, according to analysts. The Neo might be Apple's answer to snagging a larger share in classrooms.

Do you want one? Let us know in today’s poll!

Should you check your 401(k) today?

👍️ 

Praise the Lord.

Poll of the day: MacBook Neo, anyone?

Do you want a Macbook Neo?

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Poll of the day: Y’all are pretty perceptive, huh?

We asked: “A crossing guard in Vermont is making $16,000 a month with her zine. What's next?”

You answered:

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ Bernie Sanders launches a rival zine called "The Stop Sign of Democracy," where every issue includes a pair of hand-knitted mittens and a 40-page essay on the "billionaire class of crossing guards." (37)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ Netflix wins a bidding war for "Orange Vest Is the New Black," a gritty 8-season drama starring Meryl Streep as a woman who just wants people to slow down near the elementary school. (40)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ A spin-off titled "Lunch Lady Noir," a 300-page monthly manifesto exploring the sociopolitical implications of the Tuesday tater tot cycle. (30)
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ She is elected governor of Vermont on the sole campaign promise of making every citizen "wait their turn for five damn minutes." (50)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ Crossing Guard Sapphire Reserve: For $750 a year, subscribers receive a "mystery pebble" she found in the crosswalk and a personalized 2 a.m. voicemail of her blowing a whistle. (23)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ She begins selling $2,000 "Bespoke Potholes," where she will travel to your driveway and personally curate a "rustic, Vermont-style" chasm in the pavement using only a vintage pickaxe and a sense of moral superiority. (24)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 You're just jealous, Matt. She thought of it first. (271)
475 Votes via @beehiiv polls

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